LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — Here is the slam dunk prediction for the 2024 NBA Draft:
Reed Sheppard will be the highest selected player among guys who started five or fewer games last season.
Here’s another prediction to put on Sheppard’s sparkling resume:
He will be taken higher than any former UK player since Sacramento selected DeAaron Fox with the fifth overall pick in 2017.
Finally, here is one we can fuss about but is no longer as outrageous as it seemed:
Sheppard could climb as high as the first overall pick, even though John Calipari did not start him in the Wildcats’ final 10 games.
“I would not be shocked if he went one, but I have him down at 3-to-10,” said NBA draft analyst Ryan Blake.
The son of long-time NBA director of scouting Marty Blake, Ryan has scouted college and international draft prospects for more than 30 years. He attended the pre-draft combine in Chicago last month — and saw what other analysts saw.
Sheppard is legit.
He tested near the top of the class in all of the measurables, headed by his combine-leading 42-inch vertical jump.
Skeptics who wondered why Calipari continued to bring Sheppard off the bench, limiting him 29 minutes and 12.5 points per game, reconsidered their evaluations of the precocious Kentucky freshman.
On Monday, Sheppard was projected as the third overall pick, behind Zaccharie Risacher of France and Alex Sarr of Australia at ESPN.com.
Gary Parrish of CBS Sports bumped Sheppard to the second pick, behind Sarr, in his mock selections.
You can also find Sheppard at No. 6, two spots behind UK teammate Rob Dillingham at The Ringer; No. 3 at NBA.com and No. 5 at NBADraft.net. Not terrible for a player who started one game before Jan. 31.
I asked Blake for his evaluation of Sheppard.
“I'm a big Sheppard fan,” he said. “I think in today's game, when you’ve got someone that can shoot the ball like he can (that’s valuable) …
“… and it's not just him shooting the ball. It's how he's getting to those spots, how he's manipulating the spacing, the quick release, the deep range, the willingness to fire them, even contested in transition. That's just on the offensive side.
“But he's got good vision. For such a young player to have this leadership quality and coming off the bench just just blew my mind.
“I've watched him quite a bit. And the question was, ‘How was he going to match up defensively?’ Right?
“And we're trying to compare him and you're always going to compare him to anybody similar, whether it can be a Steph Curry or a Mike Conley. Can he make a difference on both ends?
“And then you take a circle graph, and you start shading in the stuff that you might have questions and then you go in and you start getting these individual workouts and the testing and you go, ‘Oh, holy s*&$, he's that good. You know?’
“Six-two (6 feet, 2 inches tall). I don't look at that number six, two and then say this is a guy that has a big question mark on him. So regardless of where he gets picked in the lottery, I think that he'll be utilized very quickly and Reed has a really, really big upside.”
You were in Chicago. Didn’t he create a buzz there?
“He had the best vertical and quickness and lateral,” Blake said.
“Every NBA team wants that franchise player, you take a guy that you want, and if he turns out to be a (Hawks guard) Trae Young or Bogdan Bogdanovic (another Hawk), it's still a good investment. You know, even if he's not a franchise player.”
Everybody talks about how Sheppard only started five games and how that affected his numbers. They mention his outrageous (52.1%) shooting numbers from distance, where he made 75 of 144 attempts, with a half dozen game when he made four or more threes.
What they forget are his high assist (24.2% of his possessions) and steal (4.7%) rates. According to the numbers at Ken Pomeroy’s analytics site, Sheppard ranked 11th in the nation in steal rate.
For a player who will not turn 20 until June 24, two nights before the draft at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., Sheppard plays with remarkable poise.
“You just literally took the words right out of my mouth,” Blake said. “Absolutely. And I think teams look at that, too.
“You can't look into a guy's heart, but you can look into his basketball IQ at a young age and see a guy who showed he can play within a system.
“I mean we have someone that knows how to play. That's a big key, and then and when you get that circle graph, that's a huge part of that graph, you know? Yeah. So you know, you hit the nail on the head …
“You look at all the checks, there's so many that just go off. There’s so many checks on him. That you go, well, Risacher and Sarr there are questions and huge upsides.
“I'm feel Reed can come in and make an impact right away And I mean, right away towards January (2025). I think he'll start getting his minutes if he can prove himself defensively on the court.
“It’s different when you get in the NBA. It's a different game, and I think he's gonna adapt to that and Reed will be able when to get on the floor defensively as well.”
Copyright 2024 WDRB Media. All rights reserved.
