Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the NFL, in order of projected 2024 win totals. Up next: the Buccaneers.
Last season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were one of the NFL’s surprise teams. Picked by many to be among the league’s worst, Tampa Bay stunned the masses and won the NFC South before hammering the Philadelphia Eagles in the wild-card round.
Entering 2024, the Buccaneers have a few moving parts. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales is out, taking the head coaching gig with the Carolina Panthers. Tampa Bay also traded veteran corner Carlton Davis III to the Detroit Lions. However, beyond those departures, the team brought back most of its core, with extensions for receiver Mike Evans, quarterback Baker Mayfield and safety Antoine Winfield Jr.
Whether running it back is smart or shortsighted is unknown, but the Bucs believe they have a good thing going.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Signing Baker Mayfield long term
Mayfield came to the Buccaneers after playing for three teams in two seasons. His career was on proverbial life support after an ugly 2022 season that included stops with the Panthers and Los Angeles Rams. Then, suddenly, he posted 4,044 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, an NFC South title and a playoff win.
The result? Mayfield got a three-year deal worth $100 million with half guaranteed. It’s not an enormous commitment by modern standards, but enough to invest two years into a quarterback with an uneven background.
If Mayfield plays as he did last season, it’s great value. If he reverts to his previous form without Canales, it could spell doom.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 5 to 10
Tampa Bay starts this six-week stretch with a pair of road divisional games against the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. Then, the Buccaneers come home to play the Baltimore Ravens before hosting Atlanta in a rematch only three weeks in the making.
Finally, the Buccaneers will play on Monday Night Football at Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs before coming back to Florida on a short week to host the San Francisco 49ers.
Getting both Super Bowl participants in the span of six days, with three tough divisional games and a date with the reigning MVP in Lamar Jackson preceding them, is brutal.
Breakout player to watch: DT Calijah Kancey
Kancey is a good bet to become a star in 2024.
The Buccaneers spent a first-round pick on the University of Pittsburgh defensive tackle in 2023 and watched as he registered four sacks, 10 tackles for loss and 12 quarterback hits as a rookie.
Historically speaking, even the best defensive tackles don’t see their stats pop until their second seasons. In Kansas City, Chris Jones only had two sacks as a rookie before notching 6.5 his sophom*ore year. Jeffery Simmons only had five in his first two seasons combined before increasing to 8.5 in his third year.
It takes time, but Kancey flashed all the necessary tools.
Best-case scenario: Mayfield continues improving, Bucs contend
The Buccaneers are bringing back a very similar team that challenged the Lions in last season’s NFC divisional round.
Tampa Bay has a case as the NFC South’s best team, even after watching the Falcons acquire Kirk Cousins. The Buccaneers also have an excellent defense at all three levels, although the pass rush is a question.
If the roster performs as it did in 2023, with Mayfield going from good to borderline top 10, Tampa Bay can not only win the South again but contend in a conference long on uncertainty and short on definite contenders.
Worst-case scenario: Offense struggles and age hinders the roster
The Buccaneers have talent, but that talent comes with age in many spots.
On defense, linebacker Lavonte David is 34 years old, while defensive tackle Vita Vea is 29. On offense, star receiver Mike Evans has never failed to produce 1,000 yards in a season but will turn 31 in August. If any of those three players begin to significantly slip, Tampa Bay has a major problem.
Furthermore, should Mayfield regress, the offense isn’t equipped to succeed in another capacity. The run game ranked last in yards per game (88.8) last season, and nothing changed in the personnel. Mayfield needs to continue being the focal point.
Head coach-quarterback tandem ranking
No. 20: Todd Bowles (22) and Mayfield (19)
The Buccaneers shocked the football world in 2023. The biggest reason was Mayfield, who threw for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns. Now on a three-year deal in Tampa Bay, the expectation for him is to continue elevating despite losing Canales, while Bowles keeps the defense working as a terrific unit.
Sleeper fantasy pick: TE Cade Otton
Otton, entering his third NFL season, has a chance to post a career-best season in 2024. He quietly put up 47 catches and 455 yards this past campaign, but his ceiling on a weekly basis was always problematic. While that could remain an issue this season, I can easily see Otton pushing for 50-plus catches and 500-plus yards. I’d take a chance on him in the late rounds as a No. 2 option. —Michael Fabiano
Best bet: Mike Evans over 1050.5 receiving yards (+100) at DraftKings
Things you can always bet on: death, taxes and Mike Evans having more than 1,000 receiving yards. DraftKings has his total at just 1050.5. I’ll fade it. Even though Mayfield has his deal and Canales is gone, I’ll still bank on the 30-year-old Evans getting to 1,051. Evans has exceeded this prop in seven of 10 NFL seasons, and the +100 is good value.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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